From the Rough

Golf without discretion

Why you shouldn’t bet the farm on Tiger Woods winning the British Open

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5-2 odds. That’s the current number at Ladbrokes for a Tiger Woods victory at the British Open. Good odds, sure. But are they worth betting on? While I’ve never been one to bet on golf, I do think it’s crazy to not bet on the Woods when he’s playing in his wheelhouse better known as the four majors.

But instead of going with the chalk this time around, I’ve decided to go with the field at Turnberry. Call it a hunch, but if these stats prove true, I think Tiger’s run of going Ofer in majors this year will continue through this week.

First off, Tiger is 4-23 when he plays a major championship at a venue he’s never seen before. Judging by all the practice rounds he’s played at the Ailsa course, it’s easy to see he’s trying to take in as much as possible. But like any golfer playing a new track, it’s going to take more than a couple of practice rounds for him to feel comfortable. Don’t get me wrong, Tiger will be there at the end of the week; but I just don’t think he’ll win the Claret Jug. The 4-23 record doesn’t lie.

This next stat may be a stretch, but I can assure you it’ll make your friends respect you a bit more if you can spit this one out during the telecast tomorrow. When coming off a win this year, Tiger has finished T-6 at a major. Wins at Bay Hill and the Memorial didn’t lead to a victory train. So who’s to say that’ll change this week?

Look, we all know Tiger is the greatest golfer (next to Jack) to ever walk this planet. He can tee it up at any course, on any day, during any season, and win. Not only that, but the last three times the Open was played at Turnberry, the top player in the world came away the winner. But if you want to pick a week to bet against “the man,” this would be the week. Just call it a hunch.

So go ahead and bet the farm on Tiger. But when he’s boarding his private jet on Sunday without the Jug, don’t say I didn’t tell you so!

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Written by Jonathan Wall

07/15/2009 at 8:14 pm

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